Geopolitical unrest pushes precious metal to new heights and there may be more to come
Gold’s long, grinding bull market has broken into new territory, with spot prices vaulting above $5,000 an ounce and, in some sessions, pushing beyond $5,100 – levels that would have seemed improbable just two years ago.
Data from market trackers show spot bullion trading around $5,050 to $5,090 an ounce after touching intraday highs above $5,100 early Monday, while front‑month US futures have followed closely behind.
Gold has gained roughly 60-65% over the past year, its strongest annual performance since the late 1970s, after spending early 2024 near $2,000.
The move is being driven by an unusually dense cluster of risks including escalating tensions between the United States and NATO partners over Greenland, renewed trade threats and tariff rhetoric from the Trump administration, and ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
For many investors, that combination has turned gold from a tactical hedge into a strategic core holding, while at the macro level, bullion’s ascent has ridden a powerful tailwind from easier US monetary policy, negative real yields across much of the curve, and a structurally weaker dollar.
Central bank buying, especially by China, has impacted gold prices and there could be more to come.
“Our forecast for the year is that gold will see a high of $6,400 an ounce with an average of $5,375,” independent analyst Ross Norman said in comments carried by Reuters. Goldman Sachs last week suggested that prices may continue to see upward pressure throughout 2026.
That kind of upside projection, coming after such a steep run‑up, is forcing investors to reassess what “overweight” really means in client portfolios.
The practical questions now are less about whether to own gold and more about sizing, structure and liquidity.
Even if underlying demand from central banks and institutions remains firm, there is a risk that bullion will lose some of its lustre with investors. At the same time, with bullion now trading well beyond previous inflation‑adjusted highs, clients looking for diversification away from equities, Treasurys and the dollar may find that “neutral” allocations need to be recalibrated for a world in which $5,000 gold is no longer a tail‑event headline, but the new starting point.
